Chaska, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 2 Miles S Chaska MN
National Weather Service Forecast for:
2 Miles S Chaska MN
Issued by: National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN |
Updated: 12:47 pm CDT Jul 26, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 Sunny
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Tonight
 Mostly Clear
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Sunday
 Sunny
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Sunday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Monday
 Sunny
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Monday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Tuesday
 Chance Showers
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Tuesday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Wednesday
 Slight Chance Showers
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Hi 88 °F |
Lo 71 °F |
Hi 92 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
Hi 91 °F |
Lo 69 °F |
Hi 84 °F |
Lo 65 °F |
Hi 79 °F |
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Extreme Heat Watch
Hazardous Weather Outlook
This Afternoon
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Sunny, with a high near 88. Heat index values as high as 96. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Tonight
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Mostly clear, with a low around 71. South southwest wind around 5 mph. |
Sunday
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Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 103. South wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Sunday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Monday
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Sunny, with a high near 91. West wind around 5 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon. |
Monday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 69. North northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Tuesday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. North northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Tuesday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. North northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Wednesday
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A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. North northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Thursday
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Sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Thursday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Friday
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Sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 2 Miles S Chaska MN.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
996
FXUS63 KMPX 261655
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1155 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid this weekend with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s
and heat indices in the upper 90s to mid 100s on Sunday.
- Unsettled weather resumes late Sunday and lasts through early next
week with thunderstorm chances. Severe storms are possible Sunday
night.
- Cooler and drier conditions later next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Conditions will be tranquil today but the same cannot be said about
temperatures. Currently, most sites overnight especially across
southern MN struggled to fall below 70 degrees which will become a
pattern for the next couple of nights. Satellite currently showing a
slot of clearer skies that extends from NE MN down to the eastern
Dakotas which bisects a subtle wave over the Dakotas the NW and
another wave to the SE across central IA. An MCV is progged to move
across the mid-Mississippi Valley today. In the wake of its passage,
temperatures will be slightly cooler, add this with southerly flow,
temperatures across southern MN are forecast to be a few degrees
less than neighboring MN/WI counties. Farther west along the border
of MN and the Dakotas, thermal ridging builds and moisture
increases. Forecast highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s,
especially for areas along and west of the MN River Valley. Heat
indices in this region will near 100 degrees this afternoon which is
reflect with a Heat Advisory through this evening. Farther
east, heat indices are expected to range in the low to mid 90s.
More suspended wildfire smoke (this time from fires in NM) is
expected to advect slowly eastward late Saturday into Sunday.
Impacts to air quality however are not anticipated as HRRR
Surface Smoke guidance look to be more concentrated aloft than
at the surface.
By Sunday, thermal continues to build and head eastward which then
places more of MN/WI beneath the heat dome. Convective contamination
(which could help mitigate some of the heat) looks to be null
and void as 700mb temps exceed 12C. Dew points will make a run
at mid 70s for most areas and low 90 surface temps will be
common. These factors along with WBGT in the mid to upper 80s
has prompted an Extreme Heat Watch to be issued for central and
southern MN and portions of western WI Sunday afternoon/evening.
Heat indices across southwestern MN are forecast to reach the
low to mid 100s and exceed 100 degrees across the Twin Cities
metro. By Sunday night a troughing pattern will reach central
Canada which will aid in flow to turn more westerly. Convection
potential remains likely as shortwaves move about the ridge in
place in the form of either one or multiple MCS`. There is still
uncertainty about how far south this system or systems will
reach but as of now central up to northern MN look to have
better potential to see storms Sunday night into Monday.
Depending on what occurs Sunday night will dictate what occurs
Monday. A boundary is expected to develop which will serve as
another primary source of lift. Take this and mesh it together
with unseasonably high PWATs, very unstable airmass, and with a
strengthening LLJ will support another round of convection.
Troughing over Canada will sag further south into MN which
should force most convection to be closer to the MN/IA border or
farther south.
For the remainder of the week, surface high pressure builds in
allowing for cooler temperatures and drier conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
A developing cumulus field between 2500-3000 feet will
contribute to few to scattered sky coverage across the area this
afternoon. Additionally, decaying showers and storms in west-
central MN will also contribute to some convective debris at AXN
and STC early this afternoon. Areas of fog look possible Sunday
morning, especially at southern MN and WI terminals. Have
largely gone MVFR at these terminals for a couple of hours near
sunrise. The exception being EAU where at least IFR looks more
likely. VFR expected the rest of the period once fog burns off.
South-southeasterly winds will be near 10 knots in western MN
this afternoon with winds slowing to under 5 knots area-wide
tonight. Winds increase and turn south-southeasterly Sunday
morning.
KMSP...Added a TEMPO from 18-19Z today for some broken MVFR cigs
as the cumulus field matures.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind N 5-10G15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-
Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
Meeker-Mille Lacs-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-
Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui
Parle-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for Pierce-Polk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...CTG
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