Chaska, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 2 Miles S Chaska MN
National Weather Service Forecast for:
2 Miles S Chaska MN
Issued by: National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN |
Updated: 11:28 am CDT Jul 8, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 Sunny
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Tonight
 Mostly Clear
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Wednesday
 Sunny
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Wednesday Night
 Increasing Clouds
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Thursday
 Partly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Thursday Night
 Chance T-storms then Showers Likely
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Friday
 Showers Likely
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Friday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Saturday
 Slight Chance Showers then Slight Chance T-storms
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Hi 81 °F |
Lo 61 °F |
Hi 82 °F |
Lo 65 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
Lo 69 °F |
Hi 79 °F |
Lo 64 °F |
Hi 77 °F |
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This Afternoon
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Sunny, with a high near 81. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Tonight
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Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind. |
Wednesday Night
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Increasing clouds, with a low around 65. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph. |
Thursday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. South wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Thursday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Friday
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. |
Friday Night
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. West northwest wind around 5 mph. |
Saturday
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A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Saturday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 61. West southwest wind around 5 mph. |
Sunday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 83. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Sunday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 64. South southwest wind around 5 mph. |
Monday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 85. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 2 Miles S Chaska MN.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
146
FXUS63 KMPX 081721
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1221 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather through Wednesday. Some patchy fog this morning
with an isolated shower possible in WI this afternoon.
- Showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night and Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Some patchy fog has developed overnight across parts of central
MN. It hasn`t been persistent in most locations, which points to
an unlikelihood of becoming widespread and dense. Light
southwest winds are also helping it struggle to develop further.
Any remaining fog by dawn will quickly burn off and fair wx cu
will form late morning. Modest surface-based instability over
Wisconsin could foster development of this cu into showers or
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight and Wednesday will be tranquil with surface high
pressure in place. Off to the west, upslope flow across the high
Plains with passing mid level disturbances should initiate
convection over the western Dakotas Wednesday afternoon. This
activity will continue east on the leading edge of an EML and
eventually on the nose of a strengthening LLJ Wednesday night.
Most guidance dives this convection southeast into western Iowa
overnight, but it`s possible some showers and storms could
overspread parts of southern and western Minnesota. The
evolution of that could play into Thursday`s chances for
convection. It appears the overnight activity should keep the
surface front suppressed to the southwest for much of the day,
with warm air advection and a persistent LLJ likely keeping
convection active across Iowa. By Thursday night, a shortwave
trough over the central Plains will lift northeast while a
larger trough over the northern Rockies/northern Plains begins
to approach from the west. This should lead to thunderstorm
chances increasing farther north in our area, but as is typical
with convective events, confidence is generally low at this
range and mesoscale details will ultimately determine the
outcome. Nevertheless, the two troughs will interact and
eventually phase with each other over the Upper Midwest Thursday
night and Friday when thunderstorm chances increase. Pwats
nearing 2 inches and synoptic forcing with the trough should
lead to widespread showers and storms and the risk for heavy
rainfall. QPF on some guidance is quite impressive, especially
from those that develop slow-moving MCVs from remnant
convection.
The trough will kick east for the weekend. After a cool Saturday
in the 70s, some ridging returns early next week with temperatures
returning to near or just above normal levels.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
VFR through the period with no precipitation expected. Winds
generally light and from the NW, becoming more N/NE by Wednesday
afternoon. It is possible we see another morning with isolated
patches of fog, but confidence on that is low and have left out
of the TAFs for now.
KMSP...Scattered CU expected to develop this afternoon.
Otherwise, no concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind N 5kts.
THU...VFR, chc -TSRA overnight. Wind S 5-10kts.
FRI...SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind SW 5-10kts bcmg W 10-15kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...PV
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